Alex Dopp Gammons Daily The Brewers Jean Segura

Jean Segura Can Succeed in 2015, and Here’s How

November 7, 2014 by Alec Dopp 1 Comment

What’s up with Jean Segura?
That’s the question many Milwaukee Brewers fans have asked over the past year and a half with respect to the offensive production of their club’s starting shortstop, and understandably so. The centerpiece to the deal that shipped Zack Greinke to Los Angeles in July of 2012, Segura, touted by Baseball Prospectus as the Angels’ No. 2 prospect behind Mike Trout three Februarys ago, has undergone significant offensive setbacks since the All-Star break of 2013, which has subsequently placed doubt among many as to whether or not the organization would be wise to commit to him long-term.
But what caliber of regressions are we talking about here? As has already been stated (and can’t really be stated enough), massive ones. Value-wise, Segura has accrued a win probability added of -1.92 since representing the National League in the Big Apple two summers ago, which was no doubt a product of his .244/.283/.322 line and weighted runs created plus of 64 in that span. To put it bluntly, that’s bad. It was an entirely different story offensively for Segura prior to that, as you may have anticipated, slashing .325/.363/.487 en route to a team-high 2.30 WPA and wRC+ of 133 — numbers that made him the most valuable shortstop in baseball over the first half of 2013.
If we’re looking for a reason behind these regressions, it would be irresponsible for us not to take into consideration the unimaginable hardships that have befallen Segura of late. This past April, the 24-year-old was struck in the head by the bat of Ryan Braun in Milwaukee’s dugout — a freak accident that required stitches and probably unnerved the young infielder during the weeks that followed. Then, in July, Segura’s 9-month-old son tragically passed away in the Dominican Republic. Devoting 100% of your thoughts and physical efforts to baseball after events like these seems next to impossible.
Still, there are concrete explanations for Segura’s relapse at the dish, though not the ones that typically come along with such levels of regression. For one, his walk-to-strikeout ratio prior to the 2013 All-Star break (0.35) has remained steady since (0.34). Secondly, he’s hit only a slightly fewer amount of frozen ropes (17.6% line-drive rate since July 18, 2013, down from 19.2% prior), and thirdly, his ground-ball rate has increased by less than one percent (58.2% to 59.1%). When I try to understand a hitters’ success or failure over an extended period of playing time, numbers like these carry weight over most others, for me.
Maybe we need to simplify things. Let’s get back to the basics and see where Segura hit the baseball.

Jean Segura Outfield Spray Chart Comparison

Bill Schroeder, a longtime Brewers television color commentator for FOX Sports, receives flack from time to time for the things he says. But one thing he’s absolutely right about is the importance of hitting the ball to the opposite field. “You know he’s seeing the ball well when he takes it to right field,” Schroeder says every time — and I do mean every time — a right-handed batter (or left-handed, for that matter) goes oppo for a base knock. If you take in those words as much as I have over the years, their value might begin to subside. But in Segura’s case, they’re one of the root causes behind his recent struggles. And here’s why.
Exactly 25.5% of Segura’s balls hit in play prior to the 2013 All-Star game were to right field, which is to say, the ‘opposite’ field. His batting average on those balls in play was .415. Meanwhile, 55.2% of his balls in play were located to center field, and only 19.2% were to his pull side (i.e. left field). Since the 2013 All-Star game, though, his opposite field percentage has decreased to 21.5% and his average on those balls in play has been .200. Concurrently, his center field rate his diminished to 49.2%, though his pull rate has increased to 29.2% — a healthy 10% increase in the frequency of pitches he’s yanked to left field.
Though these numbers are concerning, they are not in and of themselves the most worrisome aspect of his lagging production over the past year and a half. Rather, for me, the biggest reason for is his quality of contact. Overall, Segura’s hard-hit average has fallen from .163 prior to the 2013 All-Star break to .124 since. These are both well below league average, which is .200 for righties over the past two seasons. These problems have been exacerbated on pitches hit to the opposite field, though, as his opposite-field hard-hit average has nearly halved from .188 to .101. I suppose we now know the reason of why his opposite-field batting average has dropped so considerably.
Now that we understand some of the tendencies and subsequent statistical regressions behind Segura’s lack of offense over the past year and a half, let’s focus on the root cause of everything: The outer third portion of the strike zone. It is here were Segura’s quality of contact has most suffered of late, posted a hard-hit average of .071 — yikes — since the All-Star break of 2013, which placed him among the bottom 7% of qualifiers in this respect. Squaring up outer-third pitches hadn’t been an issue for him before; his .146 hard-hit average prior to the 2013 midsummer classic was essentially league average, which was .150 in that span, to be precise.
Like everything else, these struggles can be explained through video review.




Nothing significant or even noticeable has changed about Segura’s pre-swing mechanics over both spans, which is somewhat good news. So often hitters’ struggles (or successes) are born out of foot placement, bend at the knees, hand positioning, bat angle, etc., all things that transpire prior to the pitch. Thus, identifying such usually says why a hitter has failed (or succeeded) in certain situations — i.e., fix this simple mechanical issue, and you’ll do better.
But there’s also bad news. Because we’ve discerned consistent pre-swing mechanics for Segura over these past two seasons, his struggles, particularly with the outer-third of the plate, lead me to believe that he is struggling mightily with pitch recognition. The two pictures above help illustrate the point I’m trying to make here.
The first picture shows ideal mechanics at the point of contact with an outer-third offering. Segura keeps his roughly 60% of his weight on his back foot, maintains a stiff front leg, bends his back knee nearly to the ground and explodes through the hips en route to an opposite-field home run. Beautiful mechanics. Beautiful.
As for the second image, a few things have changed. Namely, Segura is attempting to muscle a clearly outside pitch to the opposite field — and to his credit, he managed a home run to left center. Indeed, the box score said he accrued four total bases on that swing. Awesome! Well, maybe not so much. What happened to dropping that back knee down? What about keeping your weight back and clearing the hips?
I hope these numbers and images have helped illuminate my make point: Segura has struggled immensely with pitch recognition since the All-Star break two years ago. Yes, his overall plate discipline numbers have been consistent and, yes, his line drive rate has dropped only minimally.
But for Segura to be a cornerstone to Milwaukee’s future, he must work diligently on his ability to recognize different offerings, cover the outer third of the plate and drive the ball to the opposite field with force.
Heck, he did it once, so who’s to say he can’t do it again?
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Statistics courtesy of TruMedia Networks LLC and FanGraphs.com.
Alec Dopp is a contributor to Gammons Daily and also covers the Green Bay Gamblers of the United States Hockey League. Connect with him on LinkedIn and give him a follow on Twitter @alecdopp