
The Phillies don’t have to trade
Cole Hamels, not the way the Dodgers felt they had to move
Matt Kemp. It depends on the ownership situation, and if there is going to be a change in ownership, and it depends on exactly where the Phillies want to go.
Trading Hamels isn’t as simple as offering a guy with four years of control for three or four players. Whoever trades for him has to take on $100M, or at least $120M if you’re the Red Sox. While
Pat Gillick has stated that it will be 2017 before they are contenders again,
Ruben Amaro seems intent on something good for show-and-tell at midwinter banquets and the opening day of spring training.
Maybe Hamels-
Wil Myers would be his kind of trade, although it seems odd that a 24-year old player has already been in three organizations before even thinking of getting a condo in Clearwater. And while the Pads have failed to draw 2M once since Petco opened, can they afford to take on $100M and trade Myers and possibly a young arm and make it all work in their five year prospective?
The Red Sox made it clear when they opened talks about Hamels that they will not deal
Mookie Betts, who is clearly a regular and he who wills the vital role of leadoff hitter (check Bill James’ 2015 projection on Betts, over .400 OBP, 500 slug, just 22 years old); in 37 games, Betts’ WAR was 2.1, in 175 Myers’ was 0.9. They will also not trade catcher
Blake Swihart. Now,
Charlie Manuel saw more games in the Boston system than any other team and believes
Garin Cecchini is a rising star and loves several others, but while Manuel is one of the best evaluators—particularly of hitters—in the game, his voice is not heard by Amaro. Nor is the voice of
Pat Gillick, who would look at this list of the nine big trades for “ace” pitchers in the last seven years, thought out building to 2017 and gone immediately to outfielder
Manuel Margot, third baseman
Rafael Devers or shortstop
Javier Guerra. Get one, the way the Cubs got
Addison Russell, two pitchers in the
Anthony Ranaudo generation and use the $100M to build internationally.
This is the history lesson in front of the Phillies:
Nine “Ace” Pitcher Trades Since 1978
Dec., 2009
Roy Halladay from Toronto to Philadelphia for
Travis d’Arnaud,
Kyle Drabek,
Michael Taylor
July, 2009
Cliff Lee traded from Cleveland to Philadelphia for
Carlos Carrasco,
Jason Knapp,
Lou Marson,
Jason Donald
Dec. 2008 Lee traded from Philadelphia to Seattle for
Tyson Gillies,
Phillippe Aumont and
J.C. Ramirez
July, 2010 Lee traded from Seattle to Texas for
Justin Smoak,
Matt Lawson,
Blake Beaven,
Josh Lueke
Feb., 2002
Johan Santana traded from Minnesota to the Mets for
Carlos Garcia,
Philip Humber,
Kevin Mulvey,
Deolis Guerra
July, 2008.
CC Sabathia traded from Cleveland to Milwaukee for
Matt LaPorta and
Michael Brantley
July 2010.
Zack Greinke traded from Kansas City to Milwaukee for
Lorenzo Cain,
Alcides Escobar,
Jeremy Jeffress,
Jake Odorizzi
July 2012 Greinke traded by Milwaukee to the Angels for
Jean Segura,
Johnny Hellweg,
Ariel Pena
July, 2014
Jon Lester traded by Boston to Oakland for
Yoenis Cespedes
July, 2014
David Price traded by Tampa Bay to Detroit for
Willy Adames,
Drew Smyly,
Nick Franklin
June, 2014
Jeff Samardzija and
Jason Hammel traded by the Cubs to Oakland for
Addison Russell,
Billy McKinney,
Dan Straily
The Brewers were desperately trying to make the post-season for the first time since 1992, and LaPorta was the top ten list prospect. Yet in his fourth year with the Indians, Brantley became an all-star-level player.
The Twins got an all-star player in the deal for
Johan Santana, who at the time was the best lefthander in the sport. Unfortunately,
Carlos Gomez became an all-star with the Brewers after the Twins traded Gomez for
J.J. Hardy, then released Hardy. Four years after trading Zack Greinke to the Brewers, Lorenzo Cain and Jake Odorizzi became quality major leaguers, Odorizzi for the Rays.
The Blue Jays got no use out of the deal for Roy Halladay. The only player of value in three Cliff Lee deals was Carlos Carrasco, who in the second half of his sixth season after the trade emerged as a major league starting pitcher.
The prospect pitchers in these deals won 48 games and lost 69 for the teams to whom they were traded. At 26 apiece, Odorizzi and Smyly well may slot into the Rays rotation next season behind
Alex Cobb and
Chris Archer.
Garza, incidentally, was considered a B list “ace” who has been traded three times. Archer in his fourth year with the Rays, may be a legit front-end starter and all-star. The Cubs traded him in 2013, have a prospect remaining in
C.J. Edwards and two useful bullpen pieces,
Neil Ramirez and
Justin Grimm. But the Cubs were smart; they went for upside in Edwards, not show-and-tell.
We don’t yet know what the A’s really got for Jeff Samardzija from the White Sox, and whether those promises match Russell and Billy McKinney.
The Phillies are on landfill with this Hamels deal. First, there aren’t many teams that can take on his contract. Oh, the Dodgers can, but they will not trade
Julio Urias,
Corey Seager or
Joc Pederson. Period. Same way the Red Sox will not trade Betts or Swihart. Perhaps the Padres can take on the $100M and we know Hamels would love to go home, but are the Phillies so bent on showing off what’s under the Hamels Tree that they forget building for ’17 the way the Braves are clearly doing? If, as several GMs think, the Giants are going to trade prospects for
Ben Zobrist, would they hold into what’s left and sign
James Shields as a free agent? Brian Cashman has made one astute longterm deal after another, and isn’t going to trade
Luis Severino and a position prospect to have three $20+M pitchers on his roster. Don’t expect the Cubs to have two $20+M pitchers in their thirties, especially when the second one also would cost prized prospects, who have tremendous value.
The Cubs and the Astros are Top Eight markets that knew what time it would take to get to the point of sustained contention, and haven’t lost sight. Perhaps the Phillies fear the rebuilding process, can’t wait for 2017, and while the Marlins and Mets begin their ascent towards the Nationals and the Braves are willing to build for the opening of their new park, the Phillies, if they will not seek ceiling in 19-to-22 year old prospects and be willing to wait for the timetables of a Brantley, Gomez, Archer or Russell, then they can hold onto one of the best pitchers in their history and hope for either 82 wins or a major breakdown in St. Louis, San Diego or Boston.