Jose Fernandez with teammate Henderson Alvarez.
Fine,
Tanner Roark’s ERA+ was better than that of
Max Scherzer, and with all the deferrals and bonuses the real present day value of the announced $210M deal was closer to $185M, but he broke the bank, and probably can soon afford a little getaway cabin in the Ozarks or off the Blue Ridge Parkway.
He was, as Scott Boras insisted, healthy from 26 to 29, and elite, and as we saw with
Madison Bumgarner and
Curt Schilling and
Randy Johnson over the last 14 years, a healthy, rested elite pitcher can carry October. Boras’s data may be right, that elite pitchers healthy from 26 to 29 pitch effectively past 37, then again, the Nationals will find out. But it makes sense for those teams who feel they need to win it all, like the Phillies in 2008 (when
Cole Hamels started 5 post-season games) and the Yankees in their new park in 2009 (when
CC Sabathia) did the same. What Bumgarner did in October, if it had been spread over a 162 season, was the equivalent of throwing more than 500 innings.
And may well hold true in 2015 for the Tigers and Nationals, both owned by teams with whom Boras has done business. Ted and Mark Lerner decided to go for it, allowing Mike Rizzo a superstsar rotation, and in time we’ll see whether or not they decide to trade a couple of their potential free agents like
Jordan Zimmermann or
Doug Fister and try to keep the team competitive through the remainder of the century—or the remainder of Scherzer’s contract, which ever comes first—or pile it all on 2015 and win in Dan Snyder’s face.
As has so often been the case, Boras allowed the Scherzer negotiations play out, logically suggesting to friendly media all the possibilities where Scherzer could change a franchise’s history, and rode a winter clipper right through what has been a low pressure pitching front.
At the Cardinals winter baseball fest this weekend, John Mozeliak told the esteemed Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch that the perennial contenders would be in the market for a front-line “ace” pitcher between now and when pitchers and catchers report next month. They would not spend the $170-200M to sign hometown hero and pitcher extraordinaire Scherzer, nor will they trade off two or three young players like
Stephen Piscotty and/or
Carlos Martinez for four years of Hamels.
Payroll was an issue with Scherzer, whose stuff makes one dream on a Bumgarner October. It was an issue with the Yankees, who already have two $20M AAV starters on the books, as well as the Red Sox. Hamels is a different case, one whose acquisition not only cost them $96M the next four years, but would require trading Martinez as well as at least one significant positional prospect.
How good is Martinez? In some ways, that really isn’t the point. Hamels would give the Cardinals a third starting pitcher over 30.
Adam Wainwright is 33,
John Lackey 36. “That is a dangerous recipe other than winning the winter banquet league,” says one National League general manager. “Pitching right now is a young man’s game. Not only are the free agent market costs of good 30-plus starters exorbitant, but we’re seeing the peak years be 26 to 30, and you don’t want to be on the hook for 30-somethings on the downside.”
Added another GM voice, “that’s why the talk of the Padres trading their remaining prospects for Hamels is PR silly. When the novelty wears off, are the San Diego Padres in 2017 going to be able to build a team around Hamels and (Matt) Kemp when they’re making more than $40M between them and they’ve traded some of their best kids and in 2015 they have a very talented starting rotation?” Depends on the baseball v. marketing view of baseball management.
To repeat something from a couple of weeks back, there was not a pitcher in 2014 who was as old as 33 years old who won as many as 16 games. “Why do you think the Indians have built their rotation the way they have?” asks a GM. Cleveland had the best rotation in the American League last season, led by Cy Young Award winner
Corey Kluber, and, at 28, he is the old man of the rotation if you don’t count
Gavin Floyd, signed as low-risk depth.
Return to this thought from two weeks ago:
Check the wins leaders, 2004 and 2014:
Average age of the pitchers who won 18 or more in 2004 was 32.3, 28.1 in 2014.
Ages of WAR leaders, 2004 and 2014:
Average age in 2004: 31.8
Average age in 2014: 27.4
Two American League general managers yesterday said to me, “you don’t think we’re aware of that putting together our staff?”
Look at three teams that most of the club analytics folks believe are serious 2015 contenders:
–The Indians had the best starting pitching in the league the last two months, and Corey Kluber is their oldest starter, at 28.
Danny Salazar is 25,
Trevor Bauer, who could be in for a huge year, is 23.
Carlos Carrasco 27. The closer,
Cody Allen is 26. They’re going to start the season considered a prime candidate to make the post-season for the second time in three years.
–The Toronto Blue Jays, with
Russell Martin leading them from behind the plate and improved defense at third with
Josh Donaldson, in left with
Michael Saunders and in center with
Dalton Pompey, still have
Mark Buehrle and
R.A. Dickey and are searching for bullpen help. But whether or not they win the East may depend on the development of
Drew Hutchison at 24,
Marcus Stroman at 23 and if 21-year-old lefty
Daniel Norris is what many think he is, that will allow hard-throwing
Aaron Sanchez to take the
Wade Davis role. Now, will they spring on
James Shields and bring Norris and Sanchez along slowly, figuring that both Buehrle and Dickey could be up after 2015 and the window to win for the first time since 1993 is extremely important to the base and to television ratings? Makes sense.
The defensive improvement at third, left, catcher and center could have a big impact on their improvement to a 90-something win contender, and holding onto Norris, Sanchez and their good young arms is going to be extremely important.
The Jays will be in the hunt watching 29-year-old Cuban second baseman Hector Olivera in the Dominican this week, so watch that. He’s big, can hit and was once a bigtime offensive player in Cuba.
–The Red Sox rotation is entirely in the 26-30 prime, with
Wade Miley,
Justin Masterson and
Rick Porcello comeback or developmental keys—while they see which of three 21-to-24 year old lefthanders—
Eduardo Rodriguez,
Brian Johnson,
Henry Owens—and
Matt Barnes are ready to step in come the second half.
As one GM says, “with all those sinkerballers, their starters can be very good, or very average.” If Masterson is healthy and is what he was two years ago, that is a major factor. What do they get from
Clay Buchholz? How many innings can
Joe Kelly throw? And are Rodriguez and Johnson as close to being ready to pitch in Fenway as some think? “With all those ground ball pitchers, they could either be really good,” says one GM, “or very mediocre.”
Toronto has the two veterans past 33, but Buehrle and Dickey are freaks, evergreens, which makes Stroman, Hutchison, Norris and the development of the bullpen extremely important to their 2015 success. Think about this: there are only 14 other pitchers 33 and older that here on MLK Week are theoretically penciled in for 25+ starts this season. Game change? The ’89 Giants won the pennant, and their four top starters averaged 33 years of age.
The Cardinals have their duo. No one can think about quitting on
Cliff Lee, so the Phillies have two, Lee and
Aaron Harang. The Giants have
Tim Hudson and
Jake Peavy, with the choice of Peavy over James Shields in their rearview mirror.
The Mets keep
Bartolo Colon as low-cost protection with their rotation of
Jacob deGrom,
Matt Harvey,
Zack Wheeler,
Noah Syndergaard and
Steve Matz, all 23 to 26. We all get how good the Nationals are, we also get how many of their very good players are free agents at the end of this season, so if
David Wright,
Curtis Granderson and
Michael Cuddyer hit, the maturation process of that staff will put them in line behind the Marlins in ’15 contention and align them to very good 2016-2018 with the depth to absorb the shock of at least one inevitable arm injury.
The Marlins, who are in better shape in terms of position players with an all-star outfield and a potential all-star catcher in
J.T. Realmuto, traded for
Dan Haren to mentor a front four of
Jose Fernandez, Henderson (The Entertainer) Alvarez,
Mat Latos and
Jarred Cosart, none of whom will be as old as 28, in the second half of the season could make a wild card run.
While
John Hart has built a Super Wal-Mart of high ceiling young pitchers with an ETA of 2017—yup, when the new park opens—the Braves still have a rotation of
Julio Teheran,
Mike Minor,
Shelby Miller and
Alex Wood, of whom Minor is the old man, at 27.
Thus is should be no surprise that when the Orioles had their organizational meetings,
Buck Showalter issued a warning about trading off any more of their highest ceiling young pitchers, as they did sending Eduardo Rodriguez to Boston for
Andrew Miller in 2014 and
Josh Hader to Houston in 2013. Showalter has argued that the Orioles will never be able to compete for the big free agent arms, and with
Kevin Gausman the only Baltimore starter under 28 this season, they have to retain
Dylan Bundy,
Hunter Harvey, et al.
From Baltimore they can see the Yankees, and how carefully Brian Cashman has tried to restore their pitching assembly line. OK, he traded
Shane Greene, because he had to get
Didi Gregorius. We understand the questions about
C.C. Sabathia and
Masahiro Tanaka and their health. But if Tanaka is healthy, in a perfect world they have him at 26,
Michael Pineda at 26,
Nathan Eovaldi at 24 and
Ivan Nova at 28. Serious stuff. Serious contenders.
And Tampa Bay isn’t drifting out into The Gulf. As of today,
Alex Cobb is the best starter in the division, at 27 the leader of the staff.
Chris Archer may be in his launch year, at 26.
Matt Moore is coming back in the summer at 25,
Jake Odorizzi,
Drew Smyly…and in
Kevin Cash a manager who gets pitching and who will soon be realized as one of the brightest and the best.
Starting pitching is increasingly becoming a young man’s game. Some, especially doctors, believe the showcase money traps—where the idea is to extend arms at all costs not to pitch, but to register on radar guns—has taken affect. Rushing young pitchers is an oft-mentioned factor.
Whatever, the White Sox aren’t going to be afraid to have
Carlos Rodon in their rotation with
Chris Sale,
Jeff Samardzija,
Jose Quintana.
Billy Beane is always going to run kids out there, like
Jesse Hahn and Kendall Graveman. The Royals are set up for years, the Twins not far away from
Jose Berrios and
Alex Meyer every fourth and fifth days.
And, whatever, the Phillies are essentially holding onto the Scott Boras theory of negotiating, waiting for something unfortunate to happen to someone else and, as Boras held on for
Kyle Lohse and
Prince Fielder and will do the same for Hamels. The difference is all Boras wants is money. The Phillies want the Cardinals to take on $96M for a pitcher in his 30’s and trade two prime prospects, or the Red Sox to take on $110M and give up two ***** prospects for a very good pitcher who has averaged 210 innings the last eight seasons.
The business is skewing young, which is why, as
Julio Urias prepares for his 19
th birthday in August, as arguably the best pitching prospect in the game, the Dodgers are already deep into discussions about the best schedule and program to maximize his promising career. That’s the way it is today, and in terms of the people now running the Dodgers, the way it’s going to be for years to come in the National League West.
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