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Peter Gammons Gammons Daily 5 questions Per Division for 2015

Five questions for each division on Opening Day

April 6, 2015 by Peter Gammons 0 Comments

On Opening Day, it is meet and right to remember the final games of the last five seasons. And remember that last fall Juan Perez started in left field in Game Seven for the San Francisco Giants, as Xander Bogaerts started the clincher at a position at which he’d started 9 regular season games in 2013, and that Ryan Theriot was the Giants DH in the 2012 clincher and the Cardinals second baseman in 2011’s Game 7 and Andres Torres was the Giants right fielder when they clinched against Texas the previous October.
Which reminds us what we don’t know every spring when the ice melts and breaks up off the Upper Peninsula, the sun doesn’t set until past 6:45 on Buzzard’s Bay and the desert flora is ablaze all the way to Zion Canyon. Indeed, Ryan Theriot started more World Series clinchers than Ted Williams or Ernie Banks.
So it is as we begin 2015. Where in 2002, a season that resulted in a monumental Basic Agreement, we began spring training with the admission that about ten of the 30 teams began spring training thinking they had a chance to play in the post-season, today there may well be 21 teams that think that if everything breaks right and they can catch a wave in October they can be sitting on top of the world. Some 13 months after finishing the 2012 season in last place, the Red Sox took the field six outs away from their third Duck Boat Ride in a decade with two players—Bogaerts, pitcher Brandon Workman—who on August 1 were playing for the Portland Sea Dogs—on the field.
Get there, and anything can happen. Ask the Tigers, who threw three straight Cy Young Award winners at the Orioles and got swept. Ask Mickey Hatcher and the ’88 Dodgers. Brian Doyle. Dusty Rhodes.
If someone were to ask to pick a Final Four in the first week of April, the consensus would probably be the Nationals, Dodgers, Mariners, Tigers, with all the conviction we have in the Farmer’s Almanac forecast for today’s weather in Cincinnati. I could see Gerrit Cole being this year’s Madison Bumgarner, or Clayton Kershaw or Adam Wainwright or Corey Kluber. I could see Russell Martin emerging as a national hero in Canada’s first post-season appearance since 1993, a Manny Machado October, Bryce Harper rising to Reggie Jacksonesque moments, or even a Willie Bloomquist moment in Game 7 of The Series, a three hit Wilmer Flores game in the snow or Mookie Betts doing something a 22-year-old isn’t supposed to do.
Look at the American League Central. There might be four teams better than anyone in the American League East, which means that some team practically as good as the Royals were in the regular season will finish fourth. That Justin Verlander may miss only one start, Bruce Rondon is expected to be fine, Miguel Cabrera is moving well and in the last week so was Victor Martinez are signs that come May 1 the division will likely again go through Comerica Park.
Or the A.L. East, where a case can be made that the Red Sox, Blue Jays, Yankees and the established favorites in Baltimore could all finish from first to fourth—assuming it takes the Rays a half-season to get their pitching in line—and that if the Central clubs knock one another off, that one, two or three teams could end up playing in October. This is how scrambled it is: much of predicting is based on starting pitching matchups, and this morning, going by what we know because there is so much we don’t know about the division’s starting pitching, the number one starter in the division may well be Baltimore’s Chris Tillman, because Alex Cobb isn’t healthy. Tillman is the—pardon the cliché—“ace,” but two of the division rival managers warn that Boston may have the best rotation depth and the best offense from one-to-six in the order.
No one can project Oakland’s eventually standing, although coming off the best record in spring training, what appear to be smart restocking deals with the Jays and White Sox and projecting Jarrod Parker’s summer return, they should have very good pitching and will do some trade no one saw coming. In fact, no one can adequately project how pitchers returning from Tommy John Surgery during the season (as opposed to Matt Harvey, whose rehabilitation time is up) will fare 12-15 months out, and when one of those pitchers is Jose Fernandez that is a playoff-altering question.
No one knows how the dramas surrounding Josh Hamilton and Alex Rodriguez will play over six months, redemption or distraction. No one yet knows if Justin Verlander will be the real Justin Verlander, Matt Wieters the real Matt Wieters, Masahiro Tanaka what we dream on, Anthony Rendon an MVP candidate, Matt Cain the real Matt Cain…or if come August Kris Bryant, Jorge Soler and Addison Russell are the rock stars of The North Side, the Bash Brothers Redux.
There is pressure on the Tigers; their window is ajar, and David Price is a free agent at the end of the season. There is pressure on Bud Black and the Padres, because so much is anticipated and he is not hired by this ownership; there is obvious pressure in Anaheim; there is pressure in Kansas City, where the free agent clocks are ticking on Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, et al; there is pressure in Baltimore, where 11 players are free agents at the end of the season and they know they cannot trade another Eduardo Rodriguez and weaken their chain of young pitching; there is always pressure in Red Sox Nation and YankeeLand, Boston coming off two last place finishes in three years, New York with a Big Three that started 41 games in 2014 and a lineup that could feature as many as eight regulars 30 or older.
But there is no team with more pressure on it than the Washington Nationals, the presumptive favorite for the third straight season. They have Bucknered the last two post-seasons, have invested heavily in a Dream Ticket rotation of Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmerman, Doug Fister, Gio Gonzalez and a Tanner Roark standing in the shadows, have invested wisely in a farm system that will allow a significant trade deadline addition and know the team walk-up song will be the Chambers Brothers’ “The Time Has Come Today.”
Harper and Strasburg by now are used to the curse of unlimited potential, the team seems to grasp it as well. But not since the Yankees of the 1996-2001 period has a team more clearly been expected to win, even before trying to deal with the upstart Marlins and Mets.
So here are five questions for each division:
National League East

1. How healthy are Rendon, Jayson Werth, Ryan Zimmerman and Denard Span at the All-star Break?
2. How good will Jose Fernandez be in his first months off TJ Surgery? And how good is the Marlins starting pitching with Mat Latos and Danny Haren? Because they have the best outfield in baseball and the star who accepts his franchise’s responsibility in Giancarlo Stanton. The way Stanton and Robinson Cano carry stardom and the responsibilities that go with that stardom is truly admirable.
3. As Matt Harvey and Jacob deGrom jump into Cy Young discussions and Steven Matz and Noah Syndergaard arrive, will the Mets’ middle infield defense be good enough? Remember this: Flores’ defensive analytics were superior to those of Jose Reyes last season. And David Wright and Curtis Granderson are prime comeback candidates to make them a contender.
4. With one player who posted an OPS+ of 100 last season remaining, Freddie Freeman, will he get 140 walks? Little wonder teams like the Red Sox tried to make a run at Freeman last winter. It’s about 2017.
5. Will the Phillies begin the reconstruction by finding a remake deal for Cole Hamels or, less likely, Chase Utley, and find homes for Jonathan Papelbon (who is still pretty good) and Ryan Howard?

National League Central

1. If Michael Wacha’s over-the-top delivery holds up and Carlos Martinez’s command and changeup have developed as they look, is this the deepest Cardinal team yet? I can’t wait to see the evolution of Jason Heyward and Randal Grichuk.
2. The Pirates had the same record and run differential as the Giants last year, and as they develop, their questions are Pedro Alvarez, Francisco Liriano and Jeff Locke.
3. While the Cubs positional lineup will be a work in progress that can change with monster contributions from Jorge Soler and Kris Bryant, will the back end of the rotation and bullpen be enough to challenge Pittsburgh and St. Louis? Does the Castro/Russell shortstop issue get raised during this season?
4. Given healthy comebacks from Joey Votto and Jay Bruce, do the Reds have enough starting pitching around Johnny Cueto to stay with the Cards and Pirates?
5. Can everything go right (for once) for a Brewer team that finished 12-15 after a terrific season? When you have Lucroy and Gomez in the middle of the field, is anything possible?

National League West

1. If Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum restore their lofty careers, will the Giants pitching be so good that by June they get Hunter Pence back, find some affordable pieces and ride back into October?
2. Can the Dodgers get Kenley Jansen back quickly and assemble a bullpen out of the Legos they brought to spring training, and will Hector Olivera turn out to be an August/September force?
3. If Andrew Cashner and Tyson Ross put together 50-60 starts, will the Padres defense be, at the least, adequate?
4. Will Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez survive the recovery process so impeded by the altitude? They have been in the Rockies starting lineup for 160 games in three years.
5. With the defense-first principle up the middle with Nick Ahmed, Chris Owings and A.J. Pollock, will the D’Backs season be spent developing young pitchers like Archie Bradley, Aaron Blair, Braden Shipley and Yoan Lopez?

American League East

1. Martin, Donaldson, Saunders championship moves, but 6 rookies not easy, 2 starters (Norris, Sanchez) w/ combined 33 starts above A level, 20-year-old RP’s Castro, Osuna 26/5 K/BB in ST, but never pitched above A. Now in prime homer park and uncertain middle infield defense. Tough in the division and in those parks.
2. The Yankees are better than you might think, with the outfield, defense and uber power BP. But can Tanaka, Sabathia and Pineda start 75 games and give Cashman a chance to work his mid-season magic?
3. The division now runs through Baltimore, but is there the depth to again cross the 90 win line? And is MLB cracking down on using AAA as a taxi squad, as threatened? One very smart executive likes to look for the “Give-a-Damn Factor,” and these Orioles have it.
4. As one who sees Buchholz (22/4 K/BB in 18 IP), Porcello, Kelly far better than some and with Johnson, Wright, Rodriguez depth, are Barnes, Workman and Ross in BP after June more a balance point than the starters?
5. ARod will never be absolved for his past, but if he hits .270 with 20 homers and, as usual, hustles, will he at least be lauded for coming back from a myriad of physical issues?

American League Central

1. With a vastly improved defense (Jason Kipnis had a monster spring) and remembering they had the best starters’ ERA in the league the last two months, if Kluber and Carrasco are what they were, McAllister (94-99 this spring) and Bauer (26 K, 1 BB) are what they were in Arizona and Salazar gets it, will this be the best rotation in the league, all under 29?
2. For all their improvements to the pitching and with Eaton/Johnson at the top, do the White Sox have the depth to go from serious contender to 90+ win team?
3. Can Justin Verlander stay healthy, Joe Nathan build on his second half and Rondon be healthy? They think so.
4. Can the Royals rotation get to the seventh enough to keep that bullpen fresh all season as Hosmer and Moustakas build off October?
5. Is Miguel Cabrera, Michael Brantley, Jose Abreu or Eric Hosmer the division MVP?

American League West

1. What does the Josh Hamilton firefight mean to the Angels? Or is his lifetime .241 average in The Big A the salient issue?
2. With all that’s been added around Cano and Seager, are Walker (27 10 2 2 5 26 in ST) and Paxton ready to dominate? Shouldn’t be in the bottom six in OPS again.
3. With Clippard and Doolittle at the end and a Gray-led rotation, are the Athletics returning to their 3-2 ways? Beware.
4. Are Albert Pujols and David Freese what they appeared to be this spring? Goodness. They’ve got pitching depth again.
5. Bigger impact: Carlos Correa or Francisco Lindor?

It isn’t hyperbole that 70 percent of the teams in Major League Baseball get to the park on this Opening Day believing there is a way to at least get to the playoffs, then hope for a Royals run. Logic tells me the Nationals, Cardinals and Dodgers win their divisions, the Pirates make it again and that the Mets, Marlins and Padres could very well end up in the playoffs.
Logic also tells me the Mariners have what appears to be the clearest four lane highway to the American League post-season. Or that the Cleveland-Detroit-Chicago-Kansas City shootout may come down to whose starting pitcher staff has the best season and that between power, prime and development the Indians are the favorites in a division that is so good and deep that it’s going to be very difficult for a second team to get in. And while I love the Blue Jays talent, it isn’t easy winning that division in those parks with a rotation and bullpen without experience. Boston, with the deepest lineup and a rotation whose spring finished with a flurry, built bullpen depth, but with the Koji Uehara question lurking. The Orioles begin the year with five players on the DL and end it with 11 free agents, so, once again, roster management and the fire of Adam Jones will carry them.
Final Four? Nationals, Dodgers, Indians, Mariners.
World Series? Nationals over the Mariners.
And on the final day of the 2015 season, Aaron Hill, picked up by Mike Rizzo along the way, will be somewhere in the starting lineup of Game Seven, which will be won by Stephen Strasburg on a home run by Bryce Harper.
Given what we usually know on Opening Day…maybe you should take Ryan Theriot in the World Series hero pool. As the noted philosopher king Joaquin Andujar always said, “baseball can be summed up in one word—youneverknow.”

Spring is done: Walker shines; roster set | Sportspress Northwest

Spring is done: Walker shines; roster set | Sportspress Northwest