Trading power for OPB and why Peter Gammons

September 18, 2014 by Peter Gammons 0 Comments

The days of the 400-something on base, 600-something slugging hitters are gone, with drug-testing and bullpens full of 96-to-100 relievers and, as several baseball people point out, a return to the strike zone as written.
What is interesting is how teams that not long ago looked the other way from hitters who had on-base percentages in the low .300’s will now accept the tradeoff to get power. So Nelson Cruz only has a .333 on base? He’s also leading the majors with 39 homers. Adam Jones is a free swinger with a .315 on base? There are only 14 other hitters with 25 home runs. Houston lives with Chris Carter’s .313 on base and the strikeouts because of 36 homers, the Orioles miss Chris Davis’s threat of 26 homers even if he’s a .300 OBP guy, and while Yoenis Cespedes may be a .300 on base hitter, the Red Sox felt they needed his power in the middle of their lineup.

Number of Players with OBP over .400 in 2014 – Victor Martinez
Number of Players with OBP over .400 in 2000 – 31
Buck Showalter says that because power is now at such a premium, 3-4-5 pitch at-bats to a Davis or Carter are the equivalent of 8 or 9 pitches because the pitchers work so hard to avoid home runs. “The threat of power is something pitchers fear,” says Burke Badenhop.
The major league average on base percentage has dropped nearly 20 points in five years, the slugging 31 points. We understand the drug-testing and bullpens, but several uniformed and front office personnel believe that because of the technology that so carefully monitors umpires, that the strike zones have been expanded from the belt-high strike to closer to the letter of the book. As one executive says, “everyone knows the difference in production between starting 1-0 and 0-1, or getting to 2-1 or 1-2. And with the decreased power, pitchers like Collin McHugh and Mike Fiers can now work the upper part of the strike zone without the fear of having six or seven guys in the lineup who can hit the ball out of the ballpark.”

Power Hitters

The impact of strikes, balls and the zone on production:

“No team can win with seven or eight .300 on base guys,” says one AL GM. “But what we’re looking at now is how to balance hitters who get on.”
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From A. Bartlett Giamatti’s “A Free and Ordered Space,” words to serve as a reminder to what one wishes for Rob Manfred a successful leadership, as well as owners and general managers trying to establish what their organizations are all about:
“Management is the capacity to handle multiple problems, neutralize various constituencies, motivate personnel; in a college or university, it means hitting as well as the actual budget at break-even. Leadership, on the other hand, is an essentially moral act, not—as in most management—an essentially protective act. It is the assertion of a vision, not simply the exercise of a style: the moral courage to assert the vision of the institution in the future and the intellectual energy to persuade the community or the culture of the wisdom and validity of the vision. It is to make the vision practicable, and compelling.”

Mariners get nothing in 5-0 loss to Angels | Mariners | The Seattle Times

Mariners get nothing in 5-0 loss to Angels | Mariners | The Seattle Times

USPGA Golf Harvard Sports Analytics

USPGA Golf: The Impact of Tee Times

September 18, 2014Golfharvardsports

By Steven Rachesky
In the first round of the 2014 British Open, 15 players out of the 18 total that shot 69 or better had teed off during the morning slots. During the afternoon, Royal Liverpool GC played much harder with significantly harsher weather conditions. Although this magnitude of discrepancy in performance between afternoon and morning tee times is extreme and perhaps rare, many golfers overlook the influence of tee time on their score.
There are two practical theories for how a golf course responds to high usage. It’s possible that the course, specifically the greens, get torn up and the balls roll slower (becomes easier), or the course firms up and plays faster (becomes harder). Using data from pgatour.com, it is possible to analyze the impact that the course’s prior use has on each player.
We can quantify this impact by taking the difference between each player’s Early Scoring Average and their Late Scoring Average. The former refers to scores carded with a morning tee time, and the latter represents those posted with an afternoon tee time. Since pgatour.com uses approximately 80 rounds to calculate each player’s early and late scoring average, the influence of tournaments like the 2014 British Open can be considered negligible, as hopefully good and bad weather will be approximately randomly assigned to morning or afternoon. Here’s a histogram displaying this difference for 177 tour players, with an average of 80 rounds per player:

As expected by the central limit theorem, this difference is approximately normally distributed. What’s most interesting about this data is that it is not centered around zero. As the histogram shows, its mean is -.1544, and given the standard deviation of .710, we can reject the null hypothesis that afternoon scores have the same mean as morning scores with a two-sided p-value of 0.004. This suggests that courses play more difficult in the afternoon, perhaps due to increased firmness of the greens.
It’s plausible that the better golfers are less affected by the course’s increased firmness than those weaker golfers. After all, there must be a reason why Rory McIlroy consistently outperforms Boo Weekly; however, a simple analysis disputes this claim.

As apparent, there is a almost no correlation (R = -.02) between scoring average and difference, suggesting that both better and worse golfers are equally affected by the golf course’s natural changes.
There is no debate on whether playing conditions affect a golfer’s score, and it is accepted that a golf course changes with constant use. Now, it’s fair to assume that golf is most challenging on that Sunday afternoon, moments before a champion is crowned. Perhaps, the USGA place the leaders in the latest tee times to even the playing field and make the action more exciting. Let’s be real, golf needs all that it can get to keep itself on the TV

Peter Gammons Gammons Daily Latest Dodger Drama

Gammons Notes: Latest Dodgers’ drama, Yankees, early frontrunners for Yasmani Tomas and more

September 17, 2014 by Peter Gammons 3 Comments

What Don Mattingly has to worry most about is whether Hanley Ramirez’s elbow injury is serious, and whether Hyun-Jin Ryu is going to respond to the cortisone shot and be ready to pitch in the post-season.
The rest? So Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp have words, and some days some feel slighted when Kemp, Puig, Andre Ethier, Carl Crawford, Scott Van Slyke and Joc Pederson aren’t all in the lineup. “It’s been an interesting year,” says Mattingly. “A long, interesting year, and we have a chance to do a lot of good things.” Even if it means that former third base phenom—turned power setup man, a la Kenley Jansen—and Carlos Frias have to step to the forefront.
Mattingly has laughed off the latest drama by comparing it to the glory days of the Oakland A’s. In the clubhouse celebration following the Game 5, 2-1 ALCS clincher over the Tigers, Vida Blue—who pitched four shutout innings in relief of Blue Moon Odom—got to the clubhouse, gave the choke sign to Odom and the two ended up on the floor.
Then on the off-day before the opener of the 1974 World Series against the Dodgers, Reggie Jackson and Billy North had a little fisticuffs scene.
The A’s won the 1972 World Series over the Reds. They beat the Dodgers in five games in 1974.
Better Living Through Chemistry.
Braves and Rockies
Speculation had been centered on the futures of Frank Wren and Fredi Gonzalez long before the Nationals clinched in Turner Field, making the Braves 58-69 since April 27. Bobby Cox remains a staunch Gonzalez defender, and despite leading the league in quality starts—helped by Wren picking up Ervin Santana and Aaron Harang after losing three-fifths of their rotation—the offense has been dreadful, second-to-last in the league in runs.
John Hart, who is one of John Schuerholz’s closest friends, may be asked to oversee the baseball operation, maybe as GM, maybe as an overseer, as was his role in Texas with Jon Daniels, as it appears John Coppolella is a prime young GM candidate.
No one in Colorado seems to know what owner Dick Monfort intends to do, unless he brings former Rockies assistant Thad Levine in from Texas. Monfort is an extraordinarily loyal man. When there were exploratory talks about deals for Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez last winter, he nixed them. When they had a July deal with Baltimore to send Jorge De La Rosa—originally signed by Dan Duquette—to the O’s for 21-year old lefthander Eduardo Rodriguez, Monfort killed the deal. For what it’s worth, Colorado’s baseball people considered Rodriguez the best prospect on the deadline trade market; Duquette then traded Rodriguez for Andrew Miller, who gives the Orioles one of the best bullpens in the game and gave Boston a pitcher several teams rate the best top-level pitching prospect in the American League.
Yankees scouting and development
Brian Cashman’s contract hasn’t been completed, but Hal Steinbrenner knows what his father always understood: that Cashman, no matter what, always has tried to do what’s right for the Yankees. Cashman and Damon Oppenheimer have taken some heat for the lack of production out of their scouting and development, but teams that scout the Yankees feel the problem has been on the development side, and ask why so many of their draftees have players do well when they sign, then do not progress.
Oppenheimer missed on Gerrit Cole, although he felt he was told what it would take to sign him, which turned out to be below the price to keep him from UCLA. Andrew Brackman didn’t work, although some of us loved the picture of Tyler Hansbrough stuffing him that sat in Brackman’s spring training locker. C.J. Henry? OK, but in that same draft they got Brett Gardner and Austin Jackson.
Then there was the 2006 draft: Ian Kennedy, Joba Chamberlain, Zach McAllister, George Kontos, Dellin Betances, Mark Melancon, Daniel McCutchen, David Robertson.
Because the Yankees have to live from year to year, the draft has never been a priority. Two hundred miles up the road, John Henry has always made scouting and development a priority, and allowed the baseball ops folks to spend what needed to be spent to get a Mookie Betts in the fifth round. Henry’s initial general manger hire was Theo Epstein, whose vow was to build scouting and development, and as one rival GM said this week, “in our ratings, the Cubs and Red Sox are two of the four best systems in the game. That speaks volumes for Theo, and it speaks volumes for Henry.”
Yasmani Tomas
There will be at least two dozen teams represented this weekend at the Giants’ complex in the Dominican Republic to see slugging Cuban outfielder Yasmani Tomas. “He’s a pure power guy, a really good hitter,” says one international scouting director. The early favorites are the Giants, who were in hard on both Jose Abreu and Rusney Castillo, the Phillies, Padres, Rangers and the Tigers. But that can change, in a hurry.
Bud Black safe in San Diego?
It would seem that Bud Black, the rock of stability, would be safe with the Padres, even with a new GM in A.J. Preller. But one GM interviewee was asked by CEO Mike Dee what he thought about changing directions and hiring Jason Varitek, whose leadership Dee witnessed in Boston.

Home Page - bigwest.org

Home Page - bigwest.org

Seattle Times Writer Geoff Baker on The Mariners drive to a wild Card Playoff Spot

Let's take a look at the real story of this Mariners season in order to figure out what they need to do to make the playoffs. Seattle is hardly out of it, sitting just a game back of a Royals team that still has to finish a suspended game on Sept. 22 in which it trails the Indians by two runs in the 10th inning. Looking like a loss there. But still, this will be more about the Mariners than other teams.
If we're going to be real, the team's entire contention catalyst has been a single homestand from Aug. 5-13. Entering that homestand vs the Blue Jays, Braves and White Sox, the Mariners were 3 games over .500. Since that homestand ended, they are 2 games over .500. But during the homestand, they went 8-1. And that, friends, is what makes the difference between a decent season and a contending one.
The problem is, other than that week-long hot streak, the Mariners have essentially been almost the exact same team. And going forward, that likely won't be enough. Play .500 from here, you're looking at 87 wins. Sure, their current pace would probably get them about 88 wins, matching the 2007 team, but it's worth remembering that there are no easy series from here on -- including a set in Houston against an Astros squad now playing like it has something to prove. In some ways, the M's would be greatly served if the Angels could wrap up the No. 1 overall seed prior to their season-ending series with Seattle. And if the Blue Jays can drop a few more games in the standings, rendering next week's tilt in Toronto meaningless for them.
What has to happen for Seattle? This isn't news to many of you, but the offense has to step up. I know they've struggled to score lately, but until running the numbers this morning, I never realized how deceivingly the team's numbers were impacted by that lone homestand on Aug. 5-13. During those 8 games, the Mariners hit for a .288 average, with an OBP of .354, a slugging percentage of .454 and a runs per game mark of 5.8.
Those are outstanding numbers. And they've inflated the team's overall mark to the point where some have been left with the impression that the Mariners actually improved their offense before the July 31 trade deadline. Heck, even I thought they had. On paper, the additions of Austin Jackson, Kendrys Morales and Chris Denorfia should have made some type of impact. And for that one homestand in early August, everything went right.
But since that homestand ended four weeks ago, the Mariners have reverted to exactly the same offense they were prior to it. Since the homestand, they have hit for a .240 average with a .299 OBP and a .375 slugging mark while scoring 3.8 runs per game. Before the homestand, they'd hit for a .243 average with a .297 OBP and a .370 slugging mark while averaging the same 3.8 runs per game scored.
You really can't get any closer than that. And that's a problem, because the offense wasn't good enough prior to get this team to the playoffs even with historic pitching. And really, the pitching hasn't changed much since the trade deadline. It isn't the issue here. Keep going at this pace and the Mariners will allow 525 runs, the fewest of the DH era over a full season.
While the starting pitching has regressed slightly, as everybody expected, the overall results on the mound really haven't changed. The Mariners opted not to make any pitching additions other than promoting James Paxton to the rotation. The stand pat attitude on the mound front saved the team money and allowed them to keep top prospects. Paxton has also looked good for the most part.
The biggest difference has been in the number of starter innings tossed per outing, but the bullpen has picked up the slack.
Up to the deadline, the team posted a 3.08 ERA and was allowing 3.3 runs per game. Since the deadline, the ERA has actually dropped to an even better 2.76 and the runs per game are down to 3.1. So, no problem, right? All is fine with the world? Well, no. Because of that lone homestand skewing the results. The Mariners posted a 1.76 ERA on that homestand and yielded just 1.9 runs per game. Not surprisingly, they were 8-1. But that was for only nine games.
Since that homestand ended, the Mariners over the past month have posted an ERA of 3.19 and allowed 3.4 runs per game. But still, that's only a little worse than the 3.08 ERA and the 3.3 runs the team was allowing through July 31. So, no big change there. Still fantastic.
Here's the kicker, though: the Mariners were only four games over .500 through the trade deadline, even with stellar pitching. In order to become demonstrably better, they had to improve the offense. And while the pitching held firm, the offense is exactly the same as it was before once you remove the noise of that lone 9-game homestand from more than a month ago. And the way things are shaking down, that won't be enough if opponents field fully-competitive lineups against the Mariners the rest of the way rather than resting stars for the playoffs or fielding minor leaguers if their seasons become meaningless.
In essence: the Mariners appear to have made the right call by holding firm on the pitching front. But they did not do enough to fix the offense at the trade deadline.
So, to improve their chances the next two weeks, they need two of their everyday trade acquisitions, Jackson and Morales, to do more. Jackson is .244/.278/.286 in 40 games with the Mariners. Morales is .210/.272/.353 in 45 games.
They obviously need Dustin Ackley to sustain his torrid numbers of late and the shortstop platoon of Chris Taylor and Brad Miller to keep producing as well. But the biggest room for improvement is from Jackson and Morales, who, let's face it, were GM Jack Zduriuencik's biggest trade acquisitions. If they don't produce at something more akin to their career norms, the Mariners are likely done and they'll have wasted some of the best pitching results in baseball over the past 42 years. If those two can produce, then the possibility of good things awaits.
Remember, over a small sample size of just two weeks, a whole lot of crazy stuff can happen. This is just looking at probabilities and trends and the biggest potential for improvement the team has. The opponents won't help because they aren't getting any easier from here. So, Jackson and Morales appear to be the keys: as they were expected to be on July 31.
In the end, the season could very well come down to them and the job that was done (or not done) to bolster the offense.

CBS 2 Exclusive: Some Say NJ High School Football Players Took Trash Talk Too Far « CBS New York#.VBeaneOH8Kk.facebook#.VBeaneOH8Kk.facebook#.VBeaneOH8Kk.facebook

CBS 2 Exclusive: Some Say NJ High School Football Players Took Trash Talk Too Far « CBS New York#.VBeaneOH8Kk.facebook#.VBeaneOH8Kk.facebook#.VBeaneOH8Kk.facebook

Seattle 21-Chargers 30 post game

http://q13fox.com/2014/09/14/pete-carroll-on-seahawks-loss-they-were-more-efficient-than-we-were/

Mariners lose 4-0 to A’s, fall a game behind second wild card | Mariners | The Seattle Times

Mariners lose 4-0 to A’s, fall a game behind second wild card | Mariners | The Seattle Times

Seahawks struggle with San Diego heat against Chargers | Seahawks | The Seattle Times

Seahawks struggle with San Diego heat against Chargers | Seahawks | The Seattle Times