Seattle Times Writer Geoff Baker on The Mariners drive to a wild Card Playoff Spot

Let's take a look at the real story of this Mariners season in order to figure out what they need to do to make the playoffs. Seattle is hardly out of it, sitting just a game back of a Royals team that still has to finish a suspended game on Sept. 22 in which it trails the Indians by two runs in the 10th inning. Looking like a loss there. But still, this will be more about the Mariners than other teams.
If we're going to be real, the team's entire contention catalyst has been a single homestand from Aug. 5-13. Entering that homestand vs the Blue Jays, Braves and White Sox, the Mariners were 3 games over .500. Since that homestand ended, they are 2 games over .500. But during the homestand, they went 8-1. And that, friends, is what makes the difference between a decent season and a contending one.
The problem is, other than that week-long hot streak, the Mariners have essentially been almost the exact same team. And going forward, that likely won't be enough. Play .500 from here, you're looking at 87 wins. Sure, their current pace would probably get them about 88 wins, matching the 2007 team, but it's worth remembering that there are no easy series from here on -- including a set in Houston against an Astros squad now playing like it has something to prove. In some ways, the M's would be greatly served if the Angels could wrap up the No. 1 overall seed prior to their season-ending series with Seattle. And if the Blue Jays can drop a few more games in the standings, rendering next week's tilt in Toronto meaningless for them.
What has to happen for Seattle? This isn't news to many of you, but the offense has to step up. I know they've struggled to score lately, but until running the numbers this morning, I never realized how deceivingly the team's numbers were impacted by that lone homestand on Aug. 5-13. During those 8 games, the Mariners hit for a .288 average, with an OBP of .354, a slugging percentage of .454 and a runs per game mark of 5.8.
Those are outstanding numbers. And they've inflated the team's overall mark to the point where some have been left with the impression that the Mariners actually improved their offense before the July 31 trade deadline. Heck, even I thought they had. On paper, the additions of Austin Jackson, Kendrys Morales and Chris Denorfia should have made some type of impact. And for that one homestand in early August, everything went right.
But since that homestand ended four weeks ago, the Mariners have reverted to exactly the same offense they were prior to it. Since the homestand, they have hit for a .240 average with a .299 OBP and a .375 slugging mark while scoring 3.8 runs per game. Before the homestand, they'd hit for a .243 average with a .297 OBP and a .370 slugging mark while averaging the same 3.8 runs per game scored.
You really can't get any closer than that. And that's a problem, because the offense wasn't good enough prior to get this team to the playoffs even with historic pitching. And really, the pitching hasn't changed much since the trade deadline. It isn't the issue here. Keep going at this pace and the Mariners will allow 525 runs, the fewest of the DH era over a full season.
While the starting pitching has regressed slightly, as everybody expected, the overall results on the mound really haven't changed. The Mariners opted not to make any pitching additions other than promoting James Paxton to the rotation. The stand pat attitude on the mound front saved the team money and allowed them to keep top prospects. Paxton has also looked good for the most part.
The biggest difference has been in the number of starter innings tossed per outing, but the bullpen has picked up the slack.
Up to the deadline, the team posted a 3.08 ERA and was allowing 3.3 runs per game. Since the deadline, the ERA has actually dropped to an even better 2.76 and the runs per game are down to 3.1. So, no problem, right? All is fine with the world? Well, no. Because of that lone homestand skewing the results. The Mariners posted a 1.76 ERA on that homestand and yielded just 1.9 runs per game. Not surprisingly, they were 8-1. But that was for only nine games.
Since that homestand ended, the Mariners over the past month have posted an ERA of 3.19 and allowed 3.4 runs per game. But still, that's only a little worse than the 3.08 ERA and the 3.3 runs the team was allowing through July 31. So, no big change there. Still fantastic.
Here's the kicker, though: the Mariners were only four games over .500 through the trade deadline, even with stellar pitching. In order to become demonstrably better, they had to improve the offense. And while the pitching held firm, the offense is exactly the same as it was before once you remove the noise of that lone 9-game homestand from more than a month ago. And the way things are shaking down, that won't be enough if opponents field fully-competitive lineups against the Mariners the rest of the way rather than resting stars for the playoffs or fielding minor leaguers if their seasons become meaningless.
In essence: the Mariners appear to have made the right call by holding firm on the pitching front. But they did not do enough to fix the offense at the trade deadline.
So, to improve their chances the next two weeks, they need two of their everyday trade acquisitions, Jackson and Morales, to do more. Jackson is .244/.278/.286 in 40 games with the Mariners. Morales is .210/.272/.353 in 45 games.
They obviously need Dustin Ackley to sustain his torrid numbers of late and the shortstop platoon of Chris Taylor and Brad Miller to keep producing as well. But the biggest room for improvement is from Jackson and Morales, who, let's face it, were GM Jack Zduriuencik's biggest trade acquisitions. If they don't produce at something more akin to their career norms, the Mariners are likely done and they'll have wasted some of the best pitching results in baseball over the past 42 years. If those two can produce, then the possibility of good things awaits.
Remember, over a small sample size of just two weeks, a whole lot of crazy stuff can happen. This is just looking at probabilities and trends and the biggest potential for improvement the team has. The opponents won't help because they aren't getting any easier from here. So, Jackson and Morales appear to be the keys: as they were expected to be on July 31.
In the end, the season could very well come down to them and the job that was done (or not done) to bolster the offense.