Food for thought as the Mariners face another challenge these final four games before all-star break. From May 31-July 2, the Mariners went on an unbelievable 31-game run where pitchers held opponents to 2.5 runs per game. Seattle went 21-10 over that stretch, vaulting into contention. The last 6 games, the pitching regressed to a still-impressive 3.33 runs per game, but the team is only 2-4 over that stretch and would be 1-5 if not for 9th inning comeback heroics in Chicago.... For the season, the Mariners are allowing 3.4 runs per game. So, what's more realistic going forward the next 2 1/2 months? For the Mariners to keep up that winning pace of 2.5 runs allowed? Or that 3.3-3.4 runs per game pace that is now losing them two of every 3? I'll suggest the latter, especially when you factor in Roenis Elias wearing down and likely regression for Chris Young at some point. In fact, the Mariners will likely need to add an arm just to maintain that season-long 3.4 runs per game allowed pace. And then, in addition to that, they will need to improve the offense (either by adding or counting on in-house improvements) just so they don't lose 2 of every 3 the rest of the way like they are doing now. It's a tall order, yes. This isn't meant to say the Mariners can't make the playoffs, just showing you that the folks claiming the team needs an arm AND bats aren't crazy. At least, not based upon what these numbers suggest. What is crazy is counting on any pitching staff to allow 2.5 runs per game over any prolonged stretch. That's about what the record-setting 1968 Cardinals were doing with Bob Gibson and company. Would a David Price addition by the M's allow them to stay that low? Probably not. Even keeping things to under 3.0 runs per game is unfair to ask any team. Price would certainly help, yes. But bats are mandatory here. Without them, chances are, this team will not contend. This isn't meant to suggest it's Mission Impossible for the Mariners. A lot can happen in sports, as the Orioles showed us two years ago and the Indians did last year. But at that point, you're crossing your fingers and hoping for luck rather than taking pro-active steps. The Mariners can't hope to win every game 3-2 and 2-1 going forward. They need to consistently score four runs or more. And they need to see their pitchers maintain this very good pace, if not the surreal pace of the prior five weeks. That's what this approaching trade deadline suggests to me. If they can achieve the playoffs in spite of this challenge, my hat will be off to them.
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