Peter Gammons Attacking The Shift Gammons Daily MLB

Peter Gammons: Attacking the Shift in an Offensively Deficient Game

March 19, 2015 by Peter Gammons 1 Comment

PHOENIX—It has been a spring of quiet, often subtle changes. In every camp, one hears praise for the openness of the Rob Manfred administration, the flexibility in trying to get instant replay right, the pace of game initiatives. “The between-innings clock has been tremendous,” says Dodger manager Don Mattingly. “There’s no standing around on the field or in the dugout between innings. Everyone’s ready to go, crisply. We’re playing two hour, 40 minute games, and I think as players get used to the rules about staying in the box it’s going to get better.”
What has been equally interesting is the industry-wide reaction to the lowest offense, highest strikeout, highest defensive shift season since before Mookie Betts was born. The catch phrase “situational hitting” is a mantra from Fort Myers to Bradenton, Sarasota to Jupiter and across Arizona. “I’m sick and tired of guys with runners in scoring position taking a lot of pitches and trying to hit balls out of the ballpark instead of going for the run,” says one NL hitting coach. “This idea that a strikeout is just an out isn’t valid in an era when we’re playing a lot of low-scoring games. It’s supposed to be about winning games, not about individual fantasy league stats.”
And in the discussion is attacking the shifts. “The game evolves,” says Buck Showalter. “Offenses make adjustments. You’ll start to see a lot of those adjustments this year, as long as hitters buy into the concepts.”
So on the back fields of Scottsdale, Brandon Belt can be found working on his bunting and trying to use the whole field. Same for several Dodgers on the back fields of Glendale. “There’s nothing complicated here,” says Don Mattingly. “Just hit better. Use the whole field. Don’t think home run all the time. Think counts.” Spoken by a man who had 684 extra base hits, 585 walks and 444 strikeouts in his career, and in 1986 batted .352, led the lead in slugging, OPS, OPS+ and total bases and struck out 35 times.
Remember, 1986 was considered an offensive problem that led to what many perceived to be a Peter Ueberroth juiced ball 1987 season; in Mattingly’s great ’86 season, teams averaged 4.41 runs, 0.91 home runs, a .323 OBP and 5.87 strikeouts per game. In ’92, they averaged 4.12 runs, 0.72 homers, a .322 OBP and 5.59 strikeouts, leading into the era of dual expansions and enhancements. Last season, the runs were 4.07, homers 0.86, OBP .314, strikeouts 7.3.
The Steroid Era, chicks digging the longball, the idea that the pitches seen column in the box score was a prerequisite for 2003-4 Yankee-Red Sox offensive success…
And in 2014 getting the starter out of the game didn’t turn out to be such a great strategy with, as Andre Ethier points out, “most everyone trotting out guys who throw 96 to 98 miles an hour.” Like the Royals, Mariners and Yankees. “It’s the idea that situational hitting is a team thing, not an individual thing,” says one National League hitting coach. “It’s not just mechanics and about numbers you can take to arbitration. It’s about adjustments made to get ahead in games to take advantage of bullpens, and keep those really good bullpens like the Royals and Giants from taking a lead and closing it out for 10 or 12 outs. If run-scoring is down, every run should count. Sometimes that requires looking fastball early in the count and hitting it, first pitch, second pitch…”
Because, as Showalter has reminded the Orioles from the day they arrived in Sarasota, the major league average with two strikes in 2014 was .159.
Which begs the question: rather than high swing-and-miss power hitters pulling balls into shifts, isn’t the percentage of even a two strike bunt better for a hit than .159?
Managers and hitting coaches have expounded on bunting against shifts, not only down the third base line when three infielders are on the right side, but to the right side when the first baseman is close to the lip of the outfield grass, the second baseman is in shallow right and the shortstop is up the middle. It makes one think about the art to which Rod Carew took the bunt to enhance his great hands as a hitter; Carew could bunt down each line and past the pitcher towards the shortstop or second baseman.
I’ve heard hitting coaches talk of “ugly” hits with runners on base. They talk about exploiting situations where defenses keep the shortstop on the lefty side and put the third baseman in a situation where he has to try to pivot. The Giants always used Pablo Sandoval on the left side because he was uncomfortable on the right and it was more natural for him to get back and cover third, thus avoiding pitchers involved in tag plays as much as possible. Teams with aggressive baserunning coaches talk about being more aggressive in base stealing because of the unnatural alignments.
“What the shifts may do is force teams to emphasize offensive fundamentals,” says Bruce Bochy. “They are more than taking pitches and trying to hit home runs.”
“The great thing about baseball is that it does evolve,” says Showalter. “If players buy into changing approaches and trying concepts, there are ways that we can attack the shifts and some of the downside of offenses around the game. It’s going to be interesting to watch this season.”
Because you know Joe Maddon has given it a lot of thought, and Clint Hurdle, Mike Scioscia…almost every manager in the major leagues. And then we’ll see subtle changes in the implementation of shifts, some shifting by counts, like the Giants, others trying a four man outfield for flyball pitchers (which one NL team has discussed), some trying a five man infield behind an extreme ground ball pitcher (like a Dallas Keuchel, or Tommy Layne with his 78% ground ball rate) in high leverage situations.
It will be fascinating to watch. But not as fascinating as those days when Clayton Kershaw, Felix Hernandez or Madison Bumgarner pitches.