Joe Sheehan Gammons Daily MLB

Sheehan: Too-early over/unders

February 17, 2015 by Joe Sheehan 0 Comments

From the desk of Joe Sheehan. Joe Sheehan (@joe_sheehan) writes for Sports Illustrated and publishes the Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter.
The first batch of MLB season-long wins lines came out today, released by Bovada. I typically make my recommendations at the end of my March win-loss prediction series, but by then, the lines have moved a bit from the openers, and often the value has been lost (or you’re paying ridiculous juice at the number you want). Because a number of readers have asked, I’m going to take an early, quick look at the posted lines to see where I find the value as of February 16. We’ll revisit this again in six weeks.
Just to give you an idea, this early look last year produced one very strong opinion: the under on the White Sox at 77 wins, described as “get-on-a-plane-and-bet-the-limit stuff”. The Sox went 73-89. The other five I wrote about:
— Dodgers under 93.5 (94-68, winning their final five games)
— Angels under 87.5 (98-64)
— Cardinals over 91.5 (90-72)
— Mariners under 80.5 (87-75)
— Rays over 87.5 (77-85)
There’s a reason I wait until the end of March to do this for real. Those picks, the “official” ones, are 11-3-1 the last three years.
I’m not sure there’s a “bet the limit” number out there this year, but if there is, it’s at the top of the list. The Nationals’ 92.5 figure is tied with the Dodgers for the highest projection. Now, I stepped in it two years ago pimping the 2013 Nationals, who would go on to win just 86 games and miss the postseason. I am pretty sure they’re going to win at least 93 games this year, though, even with the NL generally being stronger this year than it has been the past couple of years. They’ll get 19 games against the Phillies, plus 13 against the Diamondbacks and Rockies to inflate their total, and they’re pretty clearly the best team in baseball right now. That guarantees nothing, but with gambling, you’re dealing in probabilities, and the probability that the Nationals win 93 games is high enough to make the bet +EV.
I like more “overs” than “unders,” which doesn’t make much sense. Maybe I’m just overly optimistic about some teams, or delirious from the cold weather. The Braves are at 73.5, and even in the midst of their rebuilding project you have a core of Freddie Freeman, Julio Teheran, Mike Minor, Andrelton Simmons and Craig Kimbrel. Of those, only Kimbrel seems like a possible trade chip. It may be the worst Braves team in a while, it may not come close to contention, but 73-89? Not seeing it.
Working down the list…
— Red Sox over 85.5. They’re coming off a lost year, to be sure, but they’ve added offense, rebuilt the rotation and could be a true-talent 95-win team in the second half, when they get their exciting young pitchers to the majors. This is actually the highest number for any AL East team, which I’m pretty sure is a record of some kind.
— Rockies under 71.5. I think they’re worse than the Phillies are, myself, but that may be overly pessimistic about the young pitchers they have. If you think Troy Tulowitzki plays in 145 games for them, this is probably a “no bet”, but that almost never happens, and Tulowitzki remains an attractive trade target who the Rockies really have to move to jump-start this rebuild.
— Pirates over 83.5. I feel like I’m missing something here, like Andrew McCutchen retired or something and it slipped my mind. The Pirates are top-five team in the NL, and while they will miss Russell Martin on both sides of the ball, the development of the rest of their core should more than make up for his absence. The entire starting lineup is under 30 years old and most of it is in the sweet spot around the age of 27. (More on the Pirates in the next full newsletter.)
— Padres under 85.5. Fading the hype mostly, but also a statement about their defense.
— White Sox over 81.5. A bet on Don Cooper, who could have both Jeff Samardzija and Carlos Rodon in his care by June.
— Rangers over 77.5. Would have liked to see them add another starter, but this number is low even without one. They can’t possibly have as many injuries as they did a year ago, and their true talent blows this number away. Also, no more Ron Washington.
As I say, don’t take these as seriously as you would the ones I come out with later, but if you wanted to throw $40 — in some legal fashion, please — on the Nationals over, you’d probably pay for the newsletter in that move alone. Throw in a few bucks on the Pirates, and you’ll get dinner out of the deal as well.