Peter Gammons reports on the 2015 Detroit Tigers MLB

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Peter Gammons: Optimistic Tigers have sights set high for 2015 season

January 24, 2015 by Peter Gammons 6 Comments

DETROIT—Their dinner for ticketholders, corporate partners and friends was held on a frigid Friday night, and drew the largest crowd the Tigers had ever attracted. Their Saturday Fan Fest had sold out in 20 minutes when tickets went on sale days earlier, and their four day caravan around Detroit and the state of Michigan drew record crowds, with more than 30 players visiting schools and hospitals and firehouses.
While this has arguably been the greatest nine year stretch in the 114 year history of one of the American League’s eight original franchises—four times drawing 3 million fans, another time 2.9M—in some ways it has been frustrating. The Tigers have won the Central Division four straight years, but they still are without a world championship since 1984, falling short in October once in the World Series, twice in the ALCS and in 2014 in the Division Series with three “aces” in their rotation against an Orioles team that did not have a starter who started 17 games or an ERA as low as 3.22.
Granted, fortune hasn’t smiled on them; the game’s best hitter, Miguel Cabrera, was hurt each of the last two post-seasons, Anibal Sanchez came into the ALDS pitching one inning in 50 games, and Justin Verlander had a weakened shoulder that clearly affected his season.
Yet their huge base remains true, like ice, like fire. Ian Kinsler, who knew only the Rangers culture, and David Price, who knew only TropWorld, each mentioned the iconic scripted D on their caps, and the tradition that runs from Cobb to Kaline to Cabrera. “When Brad Ausmus took me out of that game on the last day of the season, the standing ovation I got from the fans was one of the greatest experiences of my life,” says Price. “It was deafening, and I would have loved to just stand there and take in what it means to pitch for this city and the people who have lived for the Tigers.” Prince could not, because there were five outs to get, but he left with a 3-0 lead over the Twins that would be held and clinch first place, a game ahead of the Royals.
The winter introduction to the 2015 season also came the week Max Scherzer signed with the Washington Nationals for what rivalled the national debt. Not that the Tigers thought there was any way Scherzer was coming back; once he turned down $144M, Dave Dombrowski said they were not moving, and, hey, Scott Boras convinced Nationals owner Ted Lerner to outbid the Tigers and get Scherzer a deal estimated at a present day value of $185M. In a city that had to declare bankruptcy and has proudly battled to rebuild against all odds, the fans understand, but Scherzer is Scherzer.
“Last year at this time we talked about how we had a starting rotation with two Cy Young Award winners and Anibal Sanchez (who had finished fourth in the Cy Young balloting in 2013),” said Brad Ausmus. “Now we’re looking at a rotation with two Cy Young Award winners, Sanchez, two additions we really like (Shane Greene, Alfredo Simon) and a team I really think is better than last year. I really like this team.”
Dombrowski makes no bones about this team being better, because it is deeper, better defensively and, most important, healthier. “We don’t have one physical issue that I’m worried about,” said Dombrowski. “Miguel Cabrera (after ankle surgery) has been cleared and when the season opens should be healthier than he has been the last two years. Jose Iglesias has been given the full clearance (after season-ending shin splint issues). Justin is in tremendous shape. We have Bruce Rondon back. This isn’t winter talk—I think we’re a better team than we were.”
Now, Dombrowski, Ausmus and all the Tiger people appreciate the emerging talent of the Central Division. The young, athletic and radar gun-popping Royals are realizing how good they can be. The Indians may have the best pitching in the league, and have built depth around their lineup. The White Sox have essentially restricted their entire team from the time they signed Jose Abreu to their acquisition of Jeff Samardzija. The Tigers, Royals and Indians have all been in the playoffs the last two years.
“I think it’s the best division in baseball right now,” said Ausmus. It may be true, but it also makes it more difficult for the Central to produce two post-season teams for a third straight year, especially given the potential repeated weaknesses of the AL East.
We can debate the Tigers v. Royals v. Indians v. White Sox. We can ZIP what it means to have Cabrera, Verlander, Iglesias, Rondon and Joakim Soria healthy, Yoenis Cespedes added to the hole behind Victor Martinez and the defense added to the outfield in Anthony Gose.
But what interests me is that when you are around these Tigers how they have tuned out the losses of Scherzer and Torii Hunter and seem so ardently focused on what Dombrowski unabashedly means when he says, “we have one goal and that’s to win the World Series.” Without fear of expectations or having Price in the same free agent situation next November that they faced with Scherzer in 2014n (although one reason they traded Rick Porcello is that they knew he would fit into the James Shields $18-20M AAV class and they didn’t care to deal with him and Price, and hence traded for Simon, a 2014 all-star with extraordinary stuff).
What sometimes has been overlooked is that the Tiger starters were not The Four Aces all season, much less in the ALDS. Their starters’ earned run average was 3.89, 10^th in the league. They were third in quality starts, but Verlander’s health set him back to a 4.54 ERA and a velocity drop of more than two MPH, and Sanchez made only 21 starts. The staff ERA was 4.01, same as the Red Sox.
They have Price in a walk year at 30, but the key may be Verlander. “When I went back to New York for physical therapy and a checkup,” he says, “I got asked, ‘did your shoulder bother you? I said…’yes…and they explained the connection.”
Last January, Verlander had core surgery essentially near his left hip. The alterations in his delivery impacted his right shoulder. He was never completely healthy, but says, “I really don’t like talking about it because I don’t want to make an excuse.” However, it helps explain how a guy who averaged 9 and 10 strikeouts per 9 innings dipped to 6.9. “They’ve really worked me hard this winter,” Verlander says. “I had to get into the best shape of my life. I’ve put on 20 pounds, good weight (he actually looks thinner).”
Sanchez needs to make 30 starts (which, had Ausmus ignored sense and the medical staff and use him differentially coming off injury in the playoffs, probably would not be possible), Simon needs to be close to what he was in 2014. They need Soria and Rondon healthy, and Joe Nathan—who on the Baseball Reference Hall of Fame Monitor is a 98, with a HOF reliever average at 100—has to keep working on some of the mechanical changes he made in cutting his pre-all-star ERA of 5.61 to his post-all-star ERA of 3.70. This is a guy who in 2012 and 2013 had 2.80 and 1.39 ERAs in a Texas ballpark that often eats righthanded pitchers and in 2014 saw his strikeout rate drop by 2.4 per nine innings.
Ian Kinsler is coming off a year in which he missed one game and blew Ausmus away with his competitiveness and professionalism, not to mention the fact that he played the best defense of his career, leading all second basemen in defensive runs saved and finished second to Dustin Pedroia in range factor and overall defense. Rajai Davis gave them defense in center and left and base stealing offense, they’ve added Gose and with Iglesias back have far better middle-of-the-field defense.
Healthy, Cabrera will mash. Victor Martinez had his .409 OBP, 28 intentional walks (Cabrera had 9) as well as his incredible 70 walk/42 strikeout/32 Homer numbers. They believe Nick Castellanos is going to hit, and get more comfortable at third.
At this time every year, teams are often valued by the tangible moves they make. The Padres are the new, new thing, at least until fly balls are hit. The Astros trade for a DH and add a couple of relievers and their blog asks, “do the Astros have too many good players?”
“You have to evaluate yourself,” says Dombrowski. “That’s all part of the decision-making process of the front office, manager, coaches, scouts and everyone in the organization. And there’s a lot of positive feeling around here, legitimate optimism that we’re better than we were last year.”
Optimism in which the front office, Ausmus, his coaching staff, the players and these Tiger fans who put four million people in Comerica Park and roll out astounding regional television ratings are convicted. It’s part of the culture, the respite from other harsh realities in the daily life of a once-great city.