Peter Gammons Looks @ Zach Grienke

March 20, 2014 by David Golebiewski 0 Comments

Zack Greinke could rake back in his high school days. The Apopka High (Florida) standout hit nearly .500 and swatted 10 home runs during his senior year, earning the 2002 Gatorade Player of the Year Award and first-team honors from Baseball America. He could have been Clemson’s slugging third baseman as well as its Friday night starter, if not for the impeccable command and pitching savvy that earned him a $2.475 million bonus from the Royals that June. Greinke made a wise choice in sticking to the pitcher’s mound as a pro, but he proved last year that he hasn’t lost his sweet high school swing.
Despite spending eight and a half of his ten major league seasons in the American League, Greinke got on base in 2013 at a clip that would make Joey Votto and Shin-Soo Choo proud. In 72 plate appearances, the Dodgers’ co-ace batted .329 and had a .409 on-base percentage. Four-oh-nine! The last time a pitcher reached base that frequently during the Expansion Era was…well, never, actually.
Highest single-season OBP for pitcher (min. 60 PA) during Expansion Era (1961-Present)

Rk	Player	OBP ▾	Year	Tm
1	Zack Greinke	.409	2013	LAD
2	Mike Leake	.407	2010	CIN
3	Curt Simmons	.378	1961	STL
4	Orel Hershiser	.373	1993	LAD
5	Mike Hampton	.373	1999	HOU
6	Chris Hammond	.364	1995	FLA
7	Catfish Hunter	.362	1971	OAK
8	Micah Owings	.361	2008	TOT
9	Brooks Kieschnick	.355	2003	MIL
10	Vern Law	.354	1964	PIT

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used

Extending the time frame back even further, Greinke had the best OBP for a pitcher since Don Newcombe‘s .434 mark in 1958. The only other player to get on base at a higher rate prior to World War II was Johnny Lindell (.429 in 1953). Greinke even boasted a higher OBP than Babe Ruth managed during any of his three big league seasons as a full-time pitcher (1915-17).
So, how did Greinke out-OBP the Babe? He accomplished it through a blend of contact, plate patience and a little bit of luck.
Generally speaking, pitchers do a godawful job of making contact (36.7% strikeout rate last season). Not Greinke, though. He punched out just 13.9% of the time — well below the 19.9% average for all MLB hitters. Jhoulys Chacin (21.7%) was closest in terms of K rate among pitchers — and that’s not all that close.
Greinke’s contact rate, 2013

Average contact rate for pitchers, 2013

As a general rule, pitchers also do a lousy job of deciding when to swing. You know the drill — the disinterested hurler takes strike one, takes strike two, and then flails at a curveball thrown halfway to the dugout. They collectively chased 34.7% of pitches thrown outside of the strike zone last year, compared to 27.9% for all batters. Greinke showed a keen eye, however, chasing just 28.6% of the time. That restraint helped him draw seven walks, tops among pitchers. Charlie Blackmon, by comparison, stepped to the plate 258 times last year and worked seven walks. You can bait most pitchers with junk offerings, but don’t bet on Greinke getting himself out.
While the pride of Apopka High showed uncanny control of the strike zone, he did also get lucky. Greinke had a .396 Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP), which was over 170 points higher than the average for pitchers (.222) and second-highest among moundsmen getting 50+ plate appearances (Andrew Cashner was first, at .423). Maybe Greinke scorches the ball compared to his peers, who usually look like they’re swinging a drenched pool noodle. But .396? To paraphrase Vin Scully, if Greinke plans on doing that again, God will have a good laugh.
The Dodgers held a decided advantage when their pitchers stepped to the plate last season, with an NL-leading .461 on-base-plus-slugging percentage (.333 average OPS for pitchers). In addition to Greinke, Hyun-Jin Ryu (.526) and Clayton Kershaw (.501) managed not to embarrass themselves. Greinke probably won’t get on base like Hanley Ramirez in 2014, but scouts loved his swing in high school for a reason. Watch your back, Juan Uribe.