Peter Gammons: 2014 MLB Predictions

March 28, 2014 by Peter Gammons 3 Comments

Predictions are, by and large, silly. There are too many variables, unforeseen injuries and things that go bump in the night.
It’s easy to remember that in 2002, with a labor agreement up on Labor Day Weekend, Commissioner Bud Selig lobbied for revenue-sharing and union cooperation by claiming that 20 of the 30 teams went to spring training knowing they had no chance of making the playoffs, and, in retrospect, it was more truth than propaganda. Selig wanted to push drug-testing, but the union made it a strikeable issue, and appreciating that baseball couldn’t afford another strike after the long winter of 1994-95, Selig backed off.
So here we are in 2014. The players are agreeing to a strengthened drug-testing policy, with USADA acknowledging that it will make it the best testing policy in sports. Players clearly want a level playing field, which appears to have resulted in the sport skewing younger than it has in generations. We all love it when GMs comp Mike Trout to Mickey Mantle, and we look at Wins Above Replacement for players finishing three years at the age of 20 and see Trout is the all-time number one, with Al Kaline (my original Trout comp) and Bryce Harper tied for second.
Teams clearly would like to pay their highest dollars to players in their peak years, ages 26-29. But the business is awash in money, at least until a few teams tap out their regional television deals, hence Clayton Kershaw and Miguel Cabrera have signed the two highest contracts in terms of AAV in history, on the heels of Robinson Cano. Is there an economist at The Kellogg School who can estimate Trout’s AAV at ages 26-30 when Cabrera is getting a ten year, $292M deal after 30?
Perhaps, most important, I calculate that at least 20 teams will open their seasons in the next few days with hope that they can make the post-season. Is Washington a strong favorite in the NL East? Yes, especially because of the injuries to the Braves starting staff and the wear they may have on their bullpen.
Are the Dodgers big favorites in the NL West? As long as Kershaw’s injury is minor and there are no implosions, yes. Hey, they went through nine different starters in April, a season of injuries to Matt Kemp, and at one point went 42-8. Kemp comeback player of the year? Very possible. Hanley Ramirez MVP? Very possible. Yasiel Puig gets it? Entirely possible. But the Giants, Padres, Diamondbacks and Rockies all think they can play in October.
Are the Cardinals favorites? Of course. They may be the only team in the game that can take Carlos Martinez and use his 96-99 MPH gas for 4-6 outs in front of Trevor Rosenthal. But the Reds and the Pirates have every reason to believe they’re going into October.
It isn’t electric ladyland thinking in Tampa Bay, Boston, Baltimore, Yankee Stadium, Detroit, Kansas City, Cleveland, Anaheim, Texas and Oakland that they are post-season teams. I can think the Rays are the team to beat in the American League, then I look at the depth of the Red Sox, 50+ homers out of the left side of their infield, the 162 game shuffle and shuttle of Shane Victorino, Daniel Nava, Jonny Gomes, Grady Sizemore, Jackie Bradley, Jr., Bryce Brentz and Mike Carp and think that if Clay Buchholz is healthy in October that this team could have a play-in game and be deep enough to be able to pull the extraordinarily difficult task of winning three more series. Anyone can look at the Tigers and think that Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer can pitch well enough for the Tigers to win nine of their starts in October.
So here are the predictions made at this weekend’s MLB Network Show:
Most Valuable Players
American League                National League
1. Evan Longoria                  Bryce Harper
2. Albert Pujols                    Jason Heyward
3. Eric Hosmer                    Buster Posey
Cy Young Award
1. David Price                     Clayton Kershaw
2. Justin Verlander              Adam Wainwright
3. Felix Hernandez             Matt Cain
Rookie of the Year
1. Xander Bogaerts            Kolten Wong
2. Nick Castellanos            Chris Owings
3. Jose Abreu                     Travis d’Arnaud
Division Races
AL East: Tampa                 NL East: Washington
AL Central: Detroit            NL Central: St. Louis
AL West: Los Angeles       NL West: Los Angeles
AL Wild Cards:                  NL Wild Cards:
Boston                              San Francisco
Baltimore                         Atlanta
World Series
Washington over Tampa Bay
But if Kansas City were to win it all, I wouldn’t be shocked. I’m not sure this Royals team isn’t better than the one that came back from 3-1 deficits to beat the Blue Jays and Cardinals in 1985. This team just doesn’t have George Brett.