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We've covered the good and the questionable about what we have seen so far with the young Mariners this season, and as promised I will get to the alarming. But first, an unplanned detour to the encouraging.
There is actually a lot to be encouraged about, including the pitching – both starting and relief – which I am not addressing here because quite frankly I am not worried about it going forward. But two specifics I want to point out today. First, as I have said in the other posts, we are evaluating up to the here and now and allowing for the fact that things could change for better or for worse. I think we are seeing better with Jesus Montero.
I had him as a question mark-plus, but if he continues on the path he has taken since the All-Star break he will be a solid good heading into next year regardless of whether or not he catches much. A quick reminder: "good" is relative in these posts. Someone complained in a comment that the players were nothing better than mediocre and that very well may be at this point, but baseball teams are made up of average to average-plus players and the players I am talking about are still developing.
I am not saying they are good compared to a Mike Trout; I am saying that I have reasonable confidence they are on a good path that will help establish them as a legitimate major leaguer in the near future. That's what the Mariners are trying to figure out here. I think most of you understand that but it was clear that some didn't, so there you go.
Back to Montero. I think we kind of all expected a masher, a guy who was ready to tear the cover off the ball on a regular basis when in truth what we got was a very young guy (22 years old, and a young 22 at that) with a good idea of hitting who has struggled for long periods of time as the league figures him out. While he has been one of the best in the league against left handers, he has been near dead last against righties. That may be changing. He had four more hits off righties this weekend including two home runs against Jered Weaver. A week ago he had 46 hits against righties. He now has 58. This is certainly progress in the right direction.
The other piece of encouraging comes from the two wins at Anaheim which pull the Mariners' record against the AL West to 17-19, just four wins shy of their win total against the division last year with 18 to play. They appear to have made progress against what is a tougher division this year. Want more encouraging news? They are just four games under .500 at home. If home and division numbers continue to move in this direction I would say that is something.
On to the alarming.
When the Mariners made the decision to play the kids, an enormous number of kids (and for those of you who don't like the term "kids" get over it. They are kids in baseball), I never for a minute believed that they would all pan out. It just doesn't work that way in baseball. Different guys have different timelines and some don't ever make the transition from Triple-A to the bigs. You don't know until you play them and usually kids are brought in carefully, surrounded by veterans, protected by managers who can keep them away from tougher pitchers and play them a bit less in their first year.
That is not how the Mariners chose to do things. They were all thrown into the fire. They got the experience but not the protection. Some have survived, a couple may blossom and some are sinking. All to be expected.
 A move to the outfield might be best for Dustin Ackley, who hasn't always looked comfortable at second base. (AP) |
With Smoak you don't give up on him because he is under club control but you have to be looking for other options in the offseason. With Ackley it is a little more complicated. How do you get him to where he should be? If he finishes the year at .220 with an OPS under .600 do you guarantee him a spot next year and have faith that an additional 600 at-bats will help move him along? There is no indication to show that it would.
With Ackley we have seen times this year when the swing has been a mess, when he can't cover a myriad of pitches and when he has been hesitant to pull the trigger at the plate. I have no doubt he will take it upon himself to attack all of this in the offseason, be it by himself or more likely with some help, perhaps with a hitting coach and hopefully with a strength coach. But will that be enough?
Hold that thought while we look at another area of concern: the entire outfield. While I like what Michael Saunders has done for most of this year, his recent 2-for-34 skid is pulling his numbers closer to Ackley's with even more strikeouts. If he doesn't pull out of this what is your outfield next year?
Franklin Gutierrez is under contract and as much as I would like to see him out there, can you pencil him in now and for how long? It's a little scary. With a month and a half to go I wouldn't bet my lunch tomorrow on one lock in the 2013 starting outfield.
Back to Ackley. While he has at times – and at times for long stretches – shown a nice glove at second there are other times when he has looked less than comfortable there. In talking to a few different ballplayers about the infield vs. the outfield they pointed out to me that there is a whole different intensity level in the infield and that can be particularly tough if it is a position you are not used to. It makes sense. There is no doubt you are in on every pitch and have far less time to react and more options of what to do should the ball come your way. I don't think all of this comes naturally to Ackley. It even seemed to me that he looked a bit shaky out there when Brendan Ryan was out. Is the infield wearing him down? If so, might it be better to put him in the outfield where he is more comfortable?
I have heard from various people throughout the year who say "I don't worry about Ackley." Dustin is a smart baseball player, a hitter that many think will just figure it out because he is Dustin Ackley and that's what he does. Well, he may need some help. With his swing, his approach (it is still in my mind that he told me in an interview last year that he tries to hit a home run every time he steps to the plate) and maybe in taking some of the pressure off with so many expecting him to develop into "the guy."
Make the move and send him to the outfield and you could lock down one spot right now and it might help a struggling player. It would also get another player, Kyle Seager, into his natural position. He is good at third but could be great at second. It's about putting guys in positions where they have the best shot at success. What have you got to lose at this point?
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